Occam’s razor

I find it rather fun to listen to crazy theories or ideas that some people believe to be true.  This can range from economic theories to how rigged online poker is.  Most of the time the simplest answer is the correct one.  This doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t give a bit of consideration to other possibilities.

Let’s start with  a non poker related situation.  My friend Garrett is a pretty smart guy.  Back in the day, 06, I was a massive donkey and played a live home game at his place.  We became friends.  I remember talking to him after a night he went out and met a girl.  He ending up hooking up with the lady.  Few weeks later he told planned on going out and was like “I’m wearing my lucky pink shirt.”

I laughed  a bit but wished him luck.  He went on to tell me that this shirt had landed him lots of numbers/ladies.  Let’s break this down a bit.  Is  that shirt lucky or since Garrett got complements on it, is his confidence higher while wearing it?  Pretty sure it’s the second one.

 

Understand that Garrett is kind of a math guy so I’m sure he didn’t really believe in luck or this lucky shirt.  Before I even knew pot odds/implied odds and that stuff he was the man.  I do have to admit I put a fair share of suckouts and beats on that guy.  Sorry G.  I was a fish so what do you expect.

 

2nd example:  Poker related.

Any seasoned pro poker player while have heard the great “poker is rigged debate.”  I’ve seen it all from people saying it’s based on your name to birth date to site just wants your money.  You can find tons of youtube vids about this subject.

Let’s look at why it isn’t and why you just might suck at poker .

Online poker sites and casino’s make money off of poker by taking rake.  Rake is taken from every hand/tournament that is played.  Doesn’t matter who is in the hand or tourny.  The site/casino gets paid.  Unlike other casino games where it’s player vs house.  Blackjack is a great example.  If you win 1k, you won that money from the house.  You, +1k  Casino:  -1k.  In poker, house still got paid and didn’t lose any money.

No reason to rig the game since it doesn’t matter to them.  With Blackjack the casino does want to limit the edge a player might get since it could be very costly.  Take those MIT BJ teams that took millions off them.

Anyone who knows a bit about UB/AP scandal will most likely throw that back at me but if you look at those situations it was certain people who abused the software for their own gain.  AP had inside guy abusing a flaw to see hole cards and ub had owner doing the same thing.  To me this is just horribly retarded to do.  UB site was making so much in rake a day compared to the extra he was skimming.  The AP guy was a employee probably not making that much.

FTP:  Another black eye was FTP handling of Blackfriday.  This was just a case of poor management.  Spending too much on everything and not having a reserve for rainy day.

The other thing is that you might be unskilled at poker!  So which is it.  A very profitable company has made it so certain players win even though they make money no matter who wins the hand/tourny OR you aren’t as good at poker as you think.

Pretty easy to see from my point of view.  

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